Hazara Nation

Mar 21, 2008
atimes
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - After more than six years, coalition forces in Afghanistan are preparing for an all-out offensive against the Taliban centered on their safe havens straddling the border with Pakistan.

This, allied with intensive North Atlantic Treaty Organization and US operations already this year, has led to much speculation on whether the Taliban will launch their annual spring offensive, with even senior NATO officials suggesting the Taliban will instead bunker down in a war of attrition, much as they did during a rough phase in 2004.

This will not be the case, according to Asia Times Online's interaction with Taliban guerrillas over the past few weeks.
But instead of taking on foreign forces in direct battle in the traditional hot spots, the Taliban plan to open new fronts as they are aware they cannot win head-on against the might of the US-led war machine.

The efforts of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and its 47,000 soldiers from nearly 40 nations will focus on specific areas that include the Bajaur and Mohmand tribal agencies in Pakistan, as well as South and North Waziristan in that country, and Nooristan, Kunar, Paktia, Paktika and Khost provinces in Afghanistan. The ISAF is complemented by the separate US-led coalition of about 20,000, the majority being US soldiers. This does not include a contingent of 3,600 US Marine Corps who this week started arriving in southern Afghanistan. They will work under the command of the ISAF.

For their part, the Taliban, according to Asia Times Online contacts, will open new fronts in Khyber Agency in Pakistan and Nangarhar province in east Afghanistan and its capital Jalalabad.

This move follows a meeting of important Taliban commanders of Pakistani and Afghan origin held for the first time in the Tera Valley bordering the Tora Bora mountains in Afghanistan. (Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders famously evaded US-led forces in the Tora Bora soon after the invasion in 2001.)

Pakistan's Khyber Agency has never been a part of the Taliban's domain. The majority of the population there follows the Brelvi school of thought, which is bitterly opposed to the hardline Taliban and the Salafi brand of Islam. The adjacent Afghan province of Nangarhar has also been a relatively peaceful area.

Conversely, the historic belt starting from Peshawar in North-West Frontier Province and running through Khyber Agency to Nangarhar is NATO's life line - 80% of its supplies pass through it. From Nangarhar, the capital Kabul is only six hours away by road.

Over the past year, the Taliban have worked hard at winning over the population in this region and have installed a new commander, Ustad Yasir, to open up the front in Nangarhar.

New dimensions to the Afghan struggle
After seven years of the "war on terror" and the Iraqi experience, both "sides" have become more pragmatic. Slogans such as "shock and awe", "crusade" against Islamic extremism and "intifada" catch the headlines, but they are not getting the job done. Both sides have refined their approach aimed at achieving specific goals and targets. If NATO has acquired excellent knowledge of the Taliban's network, the Taliban and al-Qaeda have also excelled in gathering information on NATO and its allies.

Al-Qaeda has evolved from an organization that generally only allowed in Arabs and its ideology now accommodates indigenous factors. Today, Pakistani non-Pashtuns, popularly known as Punjabis, are the Pakistani franchise of al-Qaeda. They receive macro policies from the al-Qaeda shura (council) comprising Arabs, but are independent in the implementation of these policies - although an Arab in still in overall charge.

The same goes in Iraq, where al-Qaeda is now a local organization with its hub spread between Mosul, Diyala and Baquba.

At the same time, the "war on terror" extends beyond US-British dominance. Although there are several disagreements at the operation level within NATO in Afghanistan, some partners, such as France, cognizant of the revival of the enemy's strength, have greatly enhanced their input into intelligence resources.

French intelligence is directly involved in fresh moves to track the most wanted targets, including Taliban commander Sirajuddin Haqqani, Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, chief of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Tahir Yaldeshiv, besides bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

New funds have been allocated for clandestine operations by French intelligence in Pakistan's North and South Waziristan regions, as well as in Balochistan province, to track high-profile targets with the aim of assassinating them. This is being done in coordination with NATO forces in Afghanistan.

According to Asia Times Online investigations, French intelligence has infiltrated a network of donors who had been arranging money for the Iraqi resistance and the Taliban.

Underlying these efforts is the belief that the war cannot be won through the use of naked violence alone. The militant camps have reached a similar conclusion: their actions now are much more nuanced and calibrated and they realize there will be no quick victory.

A smooth supply of money and arms from various sources as well as thousands of new recruits have rejuvenated their cause and allowed the militants to better plan their operations and carefully select their targets. They have established good rapport within the security forces at an individual level and use these contacts whenever it is essential.

Italian job
Last weekend's attack on an Italian restaurant in the Pakistani capital Islamabad shows how deeply al-Qaeda has made inroads into the Pakistani security agencies and as a result is receiving first-hand information.

The al-Qaeda attack injured, through a time bomb, four US Federal Bureau of Investigation agents, including a senior official of counter-terrorism coordination with the Pakistani Special Intelligence Agency.

The restaurant is co-owned by an Italian woman who is the wife of a man believed to be the main financial backer of anti-Taliban Shi'ites in the northern areas of Pakistan.

More such attacks are expected.